Ticket #7149 · TREBLE · risk MED
win chance 74.3%
fair 1.35x
Legs
| match | what you're picking | chance | fair | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Medeama v Swedru All Blacks
Sun 08 Nov 17:30 · Premier League
|
Home or Draw | 91.8% | 1.09x | upgrade |
|
Eiche Horn v Geestemünde
Sun 08 Nov 14:30 · Oberliga - Bremen
|
Either team wins | 89.0% | 1.12x | upgrade |
|
Iraklis 1908 v Panathinaikos
Sun 08 Nov 17:30 · Super League 1
|
Draw or Away | 90.9% | 1.10x | upgrade |
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EV & risk, decoded
EV — expected value: your expected profit per 1 unit staked at the current bookmaker price, given the calibrated probability. EV 0.12 = 12% expected return per ticket. Negative EV bets are never published.
win chance — the engine's chance this ticket WINS; fair odds = 1÷that probability. Book price above fair ⇒ positive EV.
Risk label — LOW = all legs priced & fresh, matches anchored to real odds; MED = mid-band probability or stale quotes; HIGH = unpriced leg included (tickets never ship in that state).
How the engine chose it: treble joint p=0.743 (3-leg same-day trebles, joint .70-.85: 80.3% win, n=539, 90d sim) | risk MED: mid-band joint probability | EV +0.192 means: staking 1 unit at odds 1.60 returns 0.19 units of expected profit per ticket (0.74 chance to win fair 1.35).