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Super League 1
Iraklis 1908 vs Panathinaikos
Sun 08 Nov 17:30 0 minutes final 1–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 92.5%
why
• league OK (65.2%, n=23)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 65.2% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 44.9%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 13/28 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.5%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
9.1%
Draw
24.0%
Away win
66.8%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:27
scoring fit λ 0.66 / μ 2.00
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 236 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
66.8%
|
1.5x | 52.5% n=236 | lean | won |
| Draw |
24.0%
|
4.16x | 52.5% n=236 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
9.1%
|
10.94x | 52.5% n=236 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 15 meetings — Iraklis 1908 2W / 5D / 8L
· momentum Iraklis 1908 0.83 ppg vs Panathinaik… 3.0 ppg
Iraklis 1908 · last 6
08 Nov · Super League 1
1-2
L
02 Nov · Super League 1
1-1
D
24 Oct · Super League 1
2-3
L
18 Oct · Super League 1
2-1
L
11 Oct · Super League 1
2-0
W
19 Sep · Super League 1
0-0
D
Panathinaikos · last 6
08 Nov · Super League 1
1-2
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
2-1
W
01 Nov · Super League 1
2-0
W
28 Oct · Cup
2-1
W
25 Oct · Super League 1
0-1
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
1-5
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Super League 1
Iraklis 1908 1-2 Panathinaikos
11 Mar 17 · Super League 1
Iraklis 1908 1-1 Panathinaikos
30 Oct 16 · Super League 1
Panathinaikos 2-0 Iraklis 1908
19 Mar 16 · Super League 1
Panathinaikos 4-0 Iraklis 1908
28 Nov 15 · Super League 1
Iraklis 1908 1-0 Panathinaikos
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