Ei
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Oberliga - Bremen
Eiche Horn vs Geestemünde
Sun 08 Nov 14:30 0 minutes final 2–3 · 1 won · 0 lostGe
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 89.0%
book 1.25x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (82.1%, n=28)
• type ledger 75% (n=2258)
• short price 1.25x
league track
proven · 82.1% of 28 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 64.4%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 14/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 75.1% hit (n=2258, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.9% (n=303)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
89.0%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (89.0%)
@ 08 Nov 10:40 · 1.25x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
44.6%
Draw
11.0%
Away win
44.4%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:40
scoring fit λ 2.09 / μ 2.08
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 241 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
44.4%
|
2.25x | 64.7% n=241 | risky | won |
| Draw |
11.0%
|
9.13x | 64.7% n=241 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
44.6%
|
2.24x | 64.7% n=241 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Eiche Horn 1W / 0D / 4L
· momentum Eiche Horn 0.67 ppg vs Geestemünde 2.0 ppg
Eiche Horn · last 6
08 Nov · Oberliga - Bremen
2-3
L
31 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen
2-3
W
25 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen
2-3
L
16 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen
4-0
L
11 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen
2-5
L
27 Sep · Oberliga - Bremen
1-1
D
Geestemünde · last 6
08 Nov · Oberliga - Bremen
2-3
W
01 Nov · Oberliga - Bremen
0-4
L
24 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen
0-3
W
18 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen
4-1
W
09 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen
1-5
W
27 Sep · Oberliga - Bremen
1-7
L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Oberliga - Bremen
Eiche Horn 2-3 Geestemünde
10 May 26 · Oberliga - Bremen
Eiche Horn 2-3 Geestemünde
15 Apr 26 · Oberliga - Bremen
Geestemünde 4-1 Eiche Horn
16 May 25 · Oberliga - Bremen
Eiche Horn 2-3 Geestemünde
01 Dec 24 · Oberliga - Bremen
Geestemünde 3-4 Eiche Horn