Ticket #6976 · TREBLE · risk MED
win chance 71.0%
fair 1.41x
Legs
| match | what you're picking | chance | fair | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ironi Tiberias v Beitar Jerusalem
Sat 07 Nov 20:00 · Ligat Ha'al
|
DNB A | 88.2% | 1.13x | upgrade |
|
Aris Thessaloniki v Panetolikos
Sat 07 Nov 19:30 · Super League 1
|
Home or Draw | 90.0% | 1.11x | upgrade |
|
FC Vitebsk v Dinamo Minsk
Sat 07 Nov 18:00 · Premier League
|
Draw or Away | 89.4% | 1.12x | upgrade |
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EV & risk, decoded
EV — expected value: your expected profit per 1 unit staked at the current bookmaker price, given the calibrated probability. EV 0.12 = 12% expected return per ticket. Negative EV bets are never published.
win chance — the engine's chance this ticket WINS; fair odds = 1÷that probability. Book price above fair ⇒ positive EV.
Risk label — LOW = all legs priced & fresh, matches anchored to real odds; MED = mid-band probability or stale quotes; HIGH = unpriced leg included (tickets never ship in that state).
How the engine chose it: treble joint p=0.71 (3-leg same-day trebles, joint .70-.85: 80.3% win, n=539, 90d sim) | risk MED: mid-band joint probability | EV +0.093 means: staking 1 unit at odds 1.54 returns 0.09 units of expected profit per ticket (0.71 chance to win fair 1.41).