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Premier League
FC Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk
Sat 07 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 0–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 92.9%
why
• league OK (61.1%, n=18)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 61.1% of 18 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 38.6%)
draws 15.0% of matches
team history 24/29 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.9%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
10.6%
Draw
24.0%
Away win
65.5%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:00
scoring fit λ 0.68 / μ 1.93
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
65.4%
|
1.53x | 67.7% n=31 | lean | won |
| Draw |
24.0%
|
4.17x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
10.6%
|
9.47x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — FC Vitebsk 2W / 4D / 5L
· momentum FC Vitebsk 0.67 ppg vs Dinamo Minsk 2.5 ppg
FC Vitebsk · last 6
07 Nov · Premier League
0-1
L
31 Oct · Premier League
3-1
L
24 Oct · Premier League
0-2
L
17 Oct · Premier League
0-1
W
11 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
03 Oct · Friendlies Clubs
1-0
L
Dinamo Minsk · last 6
07 Nov · Premier League
0-1
W
31 Oct · Premier League
0-1
L
24 Oct · Premier League
1-2
W
17 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
15 Oct · Premier League
3-1
W
11 Oct · Premier League
2-3
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Premier League
FC Vitebsk 0-1 Dinamo Minsk
27 Jun 26 · Premier League
Dinamo Minsk 1-1 FC Vitebsk
03 Dec 25 · Belarus Cup
Dinamo Minsk 0-0 FC Vitebsk
20 Sep 25 · Premier League
FC Vitebsk 1-2 Dinamo Minsk
03 May 25 · Premier League
Dinamo Minsk 2-1 FC Vitebsk
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