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Super League 1
Aris Thessaloniki vs Panetolikos
Sat 07 Nov 19:30 0 minutes final 3–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 92.0%
why
• league OK (65.2%, n=23)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 65.2% of 23 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 44.9%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 18/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.0%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
68.1%
Draw
21.9%
Away win
10.0%
calibrated 07 Nov 17:59
scoring fit λ 2.01 / μ 0.66
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 236 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
10.0%
|
9.98x | 52.5% n=236 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
21.9%
|
4.57x | 52.5% n=236 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
68.1%
|
1.47x | 52.5% n=236 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 19 meetings — Aris Thessalo… 11W / 3D / 5L
· momentum Aris Thessa… 2.0 ppg vs Panetolikos 0.0 ppg
Aris Thessaloniki · last 6
07 Nov · Super League 1
3-0
W
01 Nov · Super League 1
3-0
L
28 Oct · Cup
2-1
L
25 Oct · Super League 1
3-1
W
18 Oct · Super League 1
1-2
W
11 Oct · Super League 1
3-2
W
Panetolikos · last 6
07 Nov · Super League 1
3-0
L
01 Nov · Super League 1
0-1
L
24 Oct · Super League 1
5-0
L
18 Oct · Super League 1
0-2
L
11 Oct · Super League 1
2-0
L
20 Sep · Super League 1
1-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Super League 1
Aris Thessaloni… 3-0 Panetolikos
31 Jan 26 · Super League 1
Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessaloni…
06 Jan 26 · Cup
Aris Thessaloni… 2-0 Panetolikos
17 Sep 25 · Cup
Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessaloni…
30 Aug 25 · Super League 1
Aris Thessaloni… 0-2 Panetolikos