Ticket #6544 · TREBLE · risk MED
win chance 79.6%
fair 1.26x
Legs
| match | what you're picking | chance | fair | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GIF Sundsvall v Varbergs BoIS
Sat 07 Nov 16:00 · Superettan
|
Draw or Away | 93.6% | 1.07x | upgrade |
|
Guastatoya v Suchitepéquez
Sat 07 Nov 03:00 · Liga Nacional
|
Home or Draw | 92.0% | 1.09x | upgrade |
|
Juventus Women v Sassuolo Women
Sat 07 Nov 19:00 · Serie A Women
|
DNB H | 92.4% | 1.08x | upgrade |
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EV & risk, decoded
EV — expected value: your expected profit per 1 unit staked at the current bookmaker price, given the calibrated probability. EV 0.12 = 12% expected return per ticket. Negative EV bets are never published.
win chance — the engine's chance this ticket WINS; fair odds = 1÷that probability. Book price above fair ⇒ positive EV.
Risk label — LOW = all legs priced & fresh, matches anchored to real odds; MED = mid-band probability or stale quotes; HIGH = unpriced leg included (tickets never ship in that state).
How the engine chose it: treble joint p=0.796 (3-leg same-day trebles, joint .70-.85: 80.3% win, n=539, 90d sim) | risk MED: mid-band joint probability | EV +0.166 means: staking 1 unit at odds 1.47 returns 0.17 units of expected profit per ticket (0.80 chance to win fair 1.26).