HOME
Serie A Women
Juventus Women vs Sassuolo Women
Sat 07 Nov 19:00 0 minutes final 2–1 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 92.6%
why
• league PROVEN (77.3%, n=22)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 77.3% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.6%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 20/11 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.6%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
74.2%
Draw
20.8%
Away win
5.0%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:00
scoring fit λ 2.45 / μ 0.64
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 138 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
5.0%
|
20.21x | 55.8% n=138 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
20.8%
|
4.8x | 55.8% n=138 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
74.2%
|
1.35x | 55.8% n=138 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Juventus Women 8W / 4D / 0L
· momentum Juventus Wo… 1.5 ppg vs Sassuolo Wo… 0.33 ppg
Juventus Women · last 6
07 Nov · Serie A Women
2-1
W
31 Oct · Serie A Women
1-2
W
29 Oct · UEFA Champions League…
1-4
W
24 Oct · Serie A Women
2-5
L
18 Oct · Serie A Women
2-4
L
04 Oct · Serie A Women
2-1
L
Sassuolo Women · last 6
07 Nov · Serie A Women
2-1
L
31 Oct · Serie A Women
0-0
D
24 Oct · Serie A Women
2-2
D
17 Oct · Serie A Women
1-4
L
03 Oct · Serie A Women
2-0
L
27 Sep · Serie A Women
1-3
L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Serie A Women
Juventus Women 2-1 Sassuolo Women
01 Feb 26 · Serie A Women
Juventus Women 4-0 Sassuolo Women
04 Oct 25 · Serie A Women
Sassuolo Women 0-0 Juventus Women
17 Nov 24 · Serie A Women
Juventus Women 2-2 Sassuolo Women
01 Sep 24 · Serie A Women
Sassuolo Women 3-6 Juventus Women