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Liga Nacional
Guastatoya vs Suchitepéquez
Sat 07 Nov 03:00 0 minutes final 4–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 91.8%
book 1.17x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (75.0%, n=40)
• type ledger 80% (n=1986)
• short price 1.17x
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 75.0% of 40 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.8%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 19/19 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1986, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.8% (n=163)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.3% hit (n=473)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
91.8%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (91.8%)
@ 07 Nov 04:03 · 1.17x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
69.7%
Draw
22.1%
Away win
8.2%
calibrated 07 Nov 04:03
scoring fit λ 2.25 / μ 0.73
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 235 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
8.2%
|
12.22x | 51.5% n=235 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
22.1%
|
4.53x | 51.5% n=235 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
69.7%
|
1.43x | 51.5% n=235 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 2 meetings — Guastatoya 1W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Guastatoya 1.0 ppg vs Suchitepéqu… 0.83 ppg
Guastatoya · last 6
07 Nov · Liga Nacional
4-0
W
02 Nov · Liga Nacional
1-2
L
30 Oct · Liga Nacional
0-0
D
25 Oct · Liga Nacional
1-3
L
19 Oct · Liga Nacional
1-1
D
15 Oct · Liga Nacional
1-1
D
Suchitepéquez · last 6
07 Nov · Liga Nacional
4-0
L
03 Nov · Liga Nacional
1-0
W
28 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-1
L
26 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-2
D
19 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-1
L
16 Oct · Liga Nacional
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Liga Nacional
Guastatoya 4-0 Suchitepéquez
10 Sep 26 · Liga Nacional
Suchitepéquez 1-1 Guastatoya