Ticket #6304 · TREBLE · risk MED
win chance 70.1%
fair 1.43x
Legs
| match | what you're picking | chance | fair | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Newroz v Karbala
Fri 06 Nov 18:30 · Iraqi League
|
Home or Draw | 89.8% | 1.11x | upgrade |
|
Djurgården v Häcken
Fri 06 Nov 19:00 · Damallsvenskan
|
DNB A | 88.5% | 1.13x | upgrade |
|
Holywell v Airbus UK
Fri 06 Nov 21:45 · Premier League
|
Draw or Away | 88.2% | 1.13x | upgrade |
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EV & risk, decoded
EV — expected value: your expected profit per 1 unit staked at the current bookmaker price, given the calibrated probability. EV 0.12 = 12% expected return per ticket. Negative EV bets are never published.
win chance — the engine's chance this ticket WINS; fair odds = 1÷that probability. Book price above fair ⇒ positive EV.
Risk label — LOW = all legs priced & fresh, matches anchored to real odds; MED = mid-band probability or stale quotes; HIGH = unpriced leg included (tickets never ship in that state).
How the engine chose it: treble joint p=0.701 (3-leg same-day trebles, joint .70-.85: 80.3% win, n=539, 90d sim) | risk MED: mid-band joint probability | EV +0.117 means: staking 1 unit at odds 1.59 returns 0.12 units of expected profit per ticket (0.70 chance to win fair 1.43).