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Iraqi League

Newroz vs Karbala

Fri 06 Nov 18:30 0 minutes final 1–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 90.3%
book 1.14x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (78.6%, n=28)
• type ledger 80% (n=1986)
• short price 1.14x
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 78.6% of 28 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 60.5%)
draws 35.0% of matches
team history 17/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1986, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.8% (n=163)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
90.3%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw solid (90.3%)
@ 06 Nov 10:38 · 1.14x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
69.5%
Draw
20.9%
Away win
9.7%
calibrated 06 Nov 10:38
scoring fit λ 2.07 / μ 0.65
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 441 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
9.7%
10.36x 47.6% n=441 risky lost
Draw
20.9%
4.79x 47.6% n=441 risky lost
top Home win
69.5%
1.44x 47.6% n=441 lean won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Newroz 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Newroz 2.0 ppg vs Karbala 0.33 ppg
Newroz · last 6
06 Nov · Iraqi League 1-0 W
30 Oct · Iraqi League 1-1 D
24 Oct · Iraqi League 0-0 D
16 Oct · Iraqi League 2-0 W
09 Oct · Iraqi League 0-1 W
19 Sep · Iraqi League 0-0 D
Karbala · last 6
06 Nov · Iraqi League 1-0 L
30 Oct · Iraqi League 2-2 D
23 Oct · Iraqi League 5-2 L
16 Oct · Iraqi League 1-2 L
10 Oct · Iraqi League 0-0 D
18 Sep · Iraqi League 0-3 L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Iraqi League Newroz 1-0 Karbala
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 80.7% VOID SURESHOT win chance 79.4% VOID TREBLE win chance 70.2% LOST TREBLE win chance 70.2% VOID VALUE win chance 78.4% VOID TREBLE win chance 70.1% VOID