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Premier League
Holywell vs Airbus UK
Fri 06 Nov 21:45 0 minutes final 2–3 · 2 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Draw or Away · 87.1%
book 1.21x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (85.3%, n=34)
• type ledger 77% (n=658)
• short price 1.21x
league track
proven · 85.3% of 34 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 69.9%)
draws 11.7% of matches
team history 16/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-X2: 76.6% hit (n=658, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.1% (n=87)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.1%
Draw or Away
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (81.3%)
@ 06 Nov 18:09 · 1.28x
board also had Draw or Away 87.1%
pick won
Draw or Away
solid (87.1%)
@ 06 Nov 18:09 · 1.21x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
12.9%
Draw
18.7%
Away win
68.4%
calibrated 06 Nov 18:09
scoring fit λ 1.22 / μ 2.76
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
68.4%
|
1.46x | 67.7% n=31 | lean | won |
| Draw |
18.7%
|
5.34x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
12.9%
|
7.74x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 10 meetings — Holywell 2W / 2D / 6L
· momentum Holywell 0.33 ppg vs Airbus UK 2.5 ppg
Holywell · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
2-3
L
30 Oct · Premier League
5-0
L
17 Oct · Welsh Cup
3-3
D
09 Oct · Premier League
1-6
L
03 Oct · Premier League
2-1
L
26 Sep · Premier League
1-1
D
Airbus UK · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
2-3
W
30 Oct · Premier League
3-2
W
23 Oct · Premier League
2-3
W
16 Oct · Welsh Cup
1-2
L
09 Oct · Premier League
1-4
W
03 Oct · Premier League
3-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Premier League
Holywell 2-3 Airbus UK
31 Aug 26 · Premier League
Airbus UK 6-2 Holywell
03 Apr 26 · FAW Championship
Holywell 0-3 Airbus UK
03 Oct 25 · FAW Championship
Airbus UK 0-0 Holywell
25 Jan 25 · FAW Championship
Holywell 2-1 Airbus UK