Ticket #6258 · TREBLE · risk MED
win chance 76.8%
fair 1.30x
Legs
| match | what you're picking | chance | fair | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AS Roma v Sassuolo
Sat 07 Nov 21:45 · Serie A
|
Home or Draw | 91.7% | 1.09x | upgrade |
|
Rosenborg BK v Start
Sat 07 Nov 19:00 · Eliteserien
|
Either team wins | 90.6% | 1.10x | upgrade |
|
Juventus Women v Sassuolo Women
Sat 07 Nov 19:00 · Serie A Women
|
DNB H | 92.3% | 1.08x | upgrade |
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EV & risk, decoded
EV — expected value: your expected profit per 1 unit staked at the current bookmaker price, given the calibrated probability. EV 0.12 = 12% expected return per ticket. Negative EV bets are never published.
win chance — the engine's chance this ticket WINS; fair odds = 1÷that probability. Book price above fair ⇒ positive EV.
Risk label — LOW = all legs priced & fresh, matches anchored to real odds; MED = mid-band probability or stale quotes; HIGH = unpriced leg included (tickets never ship in that state).
How the engine chose it: treble joint p=0.768 (3-leg same-day trebles, joint .70-.85: 80.3% win, n=539, 90d sim) | risk MED: mid-band joint probability | EV +0.135 means: staking 1 unit at odds 1.48 returns 0.13 units of expected profit per ticket (0.77 chance to win fair 1.30).