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Serie A
AS Roma vs Sassuolo
Sat 07 Nov 21:45 0 minutes final 3–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 91.9%
book 1.13x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (78.9%, n=71)
• type ledger 80% (n=1986)
• short price 1.13x
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 78.9% of 71 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 68.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 21/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1986, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.8% (n=163)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
91.9%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (91.9%)
@ 07 Nov 17:54 · 1.13x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
80.6%
Draw
11.2%
Away win
8.1%
calibrated 07 Nov 17:54
scoring fit λ 2.65 / μ 0.67
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 383 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
8.1%
|
12.33x | 54.3% n=383 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
11.3%
|
8.88x | 54.3% n=383 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
80.6%
|
1.24x | 54.3% n=383 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 27 meetings — AS Roma 16W / 9D / 2L
· momentum AS Roma 2.17 ppg vs Sassuolo 0.17 ppg
AS Roma · last 6
07 Nov · Serie A
3-0
W
03 Nov · UEFA Champions League
3-2
L
31 Oct · Serie A
2-5
W
27 Oct · Serie A
4-2
W
24 Oct · Serie A
3-3
D
20 Oct · UEFA Champions League
4-0
W
Sassuolo · last 6
07 Nov · Serie A
3-0
L
02 Nov · Serie A
2-4
L
27 Oct · Serie A
2-6
L
24 Oct · Serie A
2-0
L
16 Oct · Serie A
4-2
L
11 Oct · Serie A
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Serie A
AS Roma 3-0 Sassuolo
10 Jan 26 · Serie A
AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo
26 Oct 25 · Serie A
Sassuolo 0-1 AS Roma
17 Mar 24 · Serie A
AS Roma 1-0 Sassuolo
17 Mar 24 · Pro League
AS Roma 1-0 Sassuolo