Ticket #6985 · VALUE · risk HIGH
win chance 79.4%
fair 1.26x
Legs
| match | what you're picking | chance | fair | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Kimberley Mar del Plata v Olimpo de Bahía Blanca
Sun 08 Nov 22:00 · Torneo Federal A
|
Under 3.5 goals | 87.8% | 1.14x | upgrade |
|
Bendel Insurance v Niger Tornadoes
Sun 08 Nov 17:00 · NPFL
|
Home or Draw | 90.5% | 1.11x | upgrade |
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EV & risk, decoded
EV — expected value: your expected profit per 1 unit staked at the current bookmaker price, given the calibrated probability. EV 0.12 = 12% expected return per ticket. Negative EV bets are never published.
win chance — the engine's chance this ticket WINS; fair odds = 1÷that probability. Book price above fair ⇒ positive EV.
Risk label — LOW = all legs priced & fresh, matches anchored to real odds; MED = mid-band probability or stale quotes; HIGH = unpriced leg included (tickets never ship in that state).
How the engine chose it: double joint p=0.794 (diff-league doubles: 73.5% win, n=528, 90d) | risk HIGH: one or more legs carries no bookmaker price | EV needs bookmaker prices; none available for this ticket.