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Torneo Federal A

Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Olimpo de Bahía Blanca

Sun 08 Nov 22:00 0 minutes
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home or Draw · 69.5%
book 1.48x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (82.1%, n=28)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• priced 1.48x - band hits ~65% (60d)
• confidence 70% below the 85% proven band
league track
proven · 82.1% of 28 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 64.4%)
draws 35.0% of matches
team history 21/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 75.2% (n=149)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
69.5%
Home or Draw
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw lean (69.5%)
@ 08 Nov 17:23 · 1.48x
board also had Under 3.5 goals 85.8%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
37.8%
Draw
31.8%
Away win
30.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:23
scoring fit λ 1.01 / μ 0.87
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 521 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdict
Away win
30.5%
3.28x 47.8% n=521 risky
Draw
31.8%
3.15x 47.8% n=521 risky
top Home win
37.8%
2.65x 47.8% n=521 risky
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 11 meetings — Kimberley Mar… 1W / 4D / 6L · momentum Kimberley M… 1.67 ppg vs Olimpo de B… 1.83 ppg
Kimberley Mar del Plata · last 6
01 Nov · Torneo Federal A 1-1 D
25 Oct · Torneo Federal A 0-0 D
18 Oct · Torneo Federal A 2-1 W
10 Oct · Torneo Federal A 0-1 W
20 Sep · Torneo Federal A 0-0 D
13 Sep · Torneo Federal A 0-0 D
Olimpo de Bahía Blanca · last 6
01 Nov · Torneo Federal A 1-0 W
25 Oct · Torneo Federal A 0-0 D
18 Oct · Torneo Federal A 2-0 L
11 Oct · Torneo Federal A 1-1 D
04 Oct · Torneo Federal A 1-2 W
27 Sep · Torneo Federal A 2-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
23 Aug 26 · Torneo Federal A Olimpo de Bahía… 1-0 Kimberley Mar d…
20 Jun 26 · Torneo Federal A Olimpo de Bahía… 0-0 Kimberley Mar d…
18 Apr 26 · Torneo Federal A Kimberley Mar d… 0-1 Olimpo de Bahía…
02 Nov 25 · Torneo Federal A Olimpo de Bahía… 3-1 Kimberley Mar d…
20 Oct 25 · Torneo Federal A Kimberley Mar d… 1-1 Olimpo de Bahía…
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 79.4% VOID VALUE win chance 78.3% VOID VALUE win chance 79.4% VOID VALUE win chance 79.4% VOID VALUE win chance 78.3% VOID VALUE win chance 79.4% VOID