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Bendel Insurance vs Niger Tornadoes
Sun 08 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 2–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 90.5%
why
• league PROVEN (75.7%, n=37)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 75.7% of 37 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.9%)
draws 40.0% of matches
team history 14/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.8% (n=163)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
90.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (90.5%)
@ 08 Nov 17:24
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
65.3%
Draw
25.2%
Away win
9.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.84 / μ 0.60
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 382 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
9.5%
|
10.49x | 62.3% n=382 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
25.2%
|
3.98x | 62.3% n=382 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
65.3%
|
1.53x | 62.3% n=382 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 7 meetings — Bendel Insura… 3W / 3D / 1L
· momentum Bendel Insu… 2.0 ppg vs Niger Torna… 1.83 ppg
Bendel Insurance · last 6
08 Nov · NPFL
2-1
W
01 Nov · NPFL
1-2
W
25 Oct · NPFL
2-1
W
18 Oct · NPFL
1-0
L
11 Oct · NPFL
2-1
L
04 Oct · NPFL
4-1
W
Niger Tornadoes · last 6
08 Nov · NPFL
2-1
L
01 Nov · NPFL
0-0
D
25 Oct · NPFL
0-1
W
18 Oct · NPFL
2-1
W
10 Oct · NPFL
0-0
D
04 Oct · NPFL
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · NPFL
Bendel Insurance 2-1 Niger Tornadoes
01 Feb 26 · NPFL
Niger Tornadoes 2-2 Bendel Insurance
13 Sep 25 · NPFL
Bendel Insurance 1-0 Niger Tornadoes
16 Feb 25 · NPFL
Bendel Insurance 3-0 Niger Tornadoes
29 Sep 24 · NPFL
Niger Tornadoes 1-1 Bendel Insurance