Ticket #6568 · VALUE · risk MED
win chance 74.6%
fair 1.34x
Legs
| match | what you're picking | chance | fair | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SC Freiburg v Union Berlin
Sun 08 Nov 18:30 · Bundesliga
|
Home or Draw | 86.0% | 1.16x | upgrade |
|
Tukums v Auda
Sun 08 Nov 13:00 · Virsliga
|
Draw or Away | 86.8% | 1.15x | upgrade |
PAID shows bookmaker odds, edges and every value ticket.
Upgrade
EV & risk, decoded
EV — expected value: your expected profit per 1 unit staked at the current bookmaker price, given the calibrated probability. EV 0.12 = 12% expected return per ticket. Negative EV bets are never published.
win chance — the engine's chance this ticket WINS; fair odds = 1÷that probability. Book price above fair ⇒ positive EV.
Risk label — LOW = all legs priced & fresh, matches anchored to real odds; MED = mid-band probability or stale quotes; HIGH = unpriced leg included (tickets never ship in that state).
How the engine chose it: double joint p=0.746 (diff-league doubles: 73.5% win, n=528, 90d) | risk MED: mid-band joint probability | EV +0.125 means: staking 1 unit at odds 1.51 returns 0.12 units of expected profit per ticket (0.75 chance to win fair 1.34).