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Bundesliga
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin
Sun 08 Nov 18:30 0 minutes final 2–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 86.5%
book 1.19x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (82.6%, n=46)
• type ledger 80% (n=1980)
• short price 1.19x
league track
proven · 82.6% of 46 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 69.3%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 21/22 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1980, 90d ledger)
measured band: 84.9% (n=292)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
86.5%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (86.5%)
@ 08 Nov 17:23 · 1.19x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
62.5%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
13.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:23
scoring fit λ 2.30 / μ 1.06
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 02 Nov · 406 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
13.5%
|
7.39x | 52.5% n=406 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
23.9%
|
4.18x | 52.5% n=406 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
62.5%
|
1.6x | 52.5% n=406 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 20 meetings — SC Freiburg 4W / 7D / 9L
· momentum SC Freiburg 2.0 ppg vs Union Berlin 1.0 ppg
SC Freiburg · last 6
08 Nov · Bundesliga
2-0
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
0-1
W
31 Oct · Bundesliga
1-2
W
28 Oct · DFB Pokal
3-2
W
25 Oct · Bundesliga
1-3
L
22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc…
3-0
L
Union Berlin · last 6
08 Nov · Bundesliga
2-0
L
01 Nov · Bundesliga
1-1
D
27 Oct · DFB Pokal
5-0
L
24 Oct · Bundesliga
1-1
D
17 Oct · Bundesliga
0-0
D
10 Oct · Bundesliga
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Bundesliga
SC Freiburg 2-0 Union Berlin
15 Mar 26 · Bundesliga
SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin
01 Nov 25 · Bundesliga
Union Berlin 0-0 SC Freiburg
30 Mar 25 · Bundesliga
SC Freiburg 1-2 Union Berlin
08 Nov 24 · Bundesliga
Union Berlin 0-0 SC Freiburg