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Virsliga
Tukums vs Auda
Sun 08 Nov 13:00 0 minutes final 1–2 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 93.5%
why
• league PROVEN (84.0%, n=25)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 84.0% of 25 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 65.3%)
draws 25.0% of matches
team history 25/31 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.5%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
8.1%
Draw
20.5%
Away win
71.5%
calibrated 08 Nov 10:38
scoring fit λ 0.76 / μ 2.39
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 181 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
71.5%
|
1.4x | 60.8% n=181 | solid | won |
| Draw |
20.5%
|
4.89x | 60.8% n=181 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
8.1%
|
12.35x | 60.8% n=181 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — Tukums 3W / 2D / 9L
· momentum Tukums 0.33 ppg vs Auda 2.17 ppg
Tukums · last 6
08 Nov · Virsliga
1-2
L
01 Nov · Virsliga
2-0
L
24 Oct · Virsliga
0-0
D
19 Oct · Virsliga
2-0
L
10 Oct · Virsliga
0-2
L
20 Sep · Virsliga
1-1
D
Auda · last 6
08 Nov · Virsliga
1-2
W
01 Nov · Virsliga
4-3
W
25 Oct · Virsliga
1-4
W
19 Oct · Virsliga
2-1
L
12 Oct · Virsliga
2-3
W
20 Sep · Virsliga
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Virsliga
Tukums 1-2 Auda
21 Aug 26 · Virsliga
Auda 3-0 Tukums
17 Jun 26 · Virsliga
Tukums 2-1 Auda
26 Apr 26 · Virsliga
Auda 2-1 Tukums
02 Nov 25 · Virsliga
Auda 0-1 Tukums