Ticket #6512 · VALUE · risk MED
win chance 74.2%
fair 1.35x
Legs
| match | what you're picking | chance | fair | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Al-Karma v Naft Maysan
Fri 06 Nov 18:00 · Iraqi League
|
Home or Draw | 86.9% | 1.15x | upgrade |
|
Bangor 1876 v Gresford Athletic
Fri 06 Nov 21:30 · FAW Championship
|
Either team wins | 85.5% | 1.17x | upgrade |
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EV & risk, decoded
EV — expected value: your expected profit per 1 unit staked at the current bookmaker price, given the calibrated probability. EV 0.12 = 12% expected return per ticket. Negative EV bets are never published.
win chance — the engine's chance this ticket WINS; fair odds = 1÷that probability. Book price above fair ⇒ positive EV.
Risk label — LOW = all legs priced & fresh, matches anchored to real odds; MED = mid-band probability or stale quotes; HIGH = unpriced leg included (tickets never ship in that state).
How the engine chose it: double joint p=0.742 (diff-league doubles: 73.5% win, n=528, 90d) | risk MED: mid-band joint probability | EV +0.047 means: staking 1 unit at odds 1.41 returns 0.05 units of expected profit per ticket (0.74 chance to win fair 1.35).