Ba
HOME
FAW Championship

Bangor 1876 vs Gresford Athletic

Fri 06 Nov 21:30 0 minutes final 9–0 · 1 won · 0 lost
Gr
AWAY
back to predictions
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Home, draw refunds · 75.3%
book 1.04x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 71% (n=63)
• short price 1.04x
• priced 1.04x needs 96% to break even
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 14/12 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DNB-H: 71.4% hit (n=63, 90d ledger)
measured band: 76.8% (n=280)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2539)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
75.3%
Home, draw refunds
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home, draw refunds solid (75.3%)
@ 06 Nov 17:54 · 1.04x
board also had Either team wins 85.5% pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
64.4%
Draw
14.5%
Away win
21.1%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:54
scoring fit λ 2.37 / μ 1.25
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 467 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
21.1%
4.75x 54.2% n=467 risky lost
Draw
14.5%
6.87x 54.2% n=467 risky lost
top Home win
64.4%
1.55x 54.2% n=467 lean won
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Bangor 1876 1W / 0D / 0L · momentum Bangor 1876 1.33 ppg vs Gresford At… 1.17 ppg
Bangor 1876 · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship 9-0 W
31 Oct · FAW Championship 1-1 D
16 Oct · Welsh Cup 0-2 W
10 Oct · FAW Championship 0-0 D
03 Oct · FAW Championship 1-0 L
25 Sep · FAW Championship 2-6 L
Gresford Athletic · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship 9-0 L
31 Oct · FAW Championship 1-2 L
10 Oct · FAW Championship 0-1 L
03 Oct · FAW Championship 0-1 W
26 Sep · FAW Championship 3-1 W
12 Sep · FAW Championship 1-1 D
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · FAW Championship Bangor 1876 9-0 Gresford Athlet…
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 74.5% WON VALUE win chance 74.2% WON VALUE win chance 75.0% VOID VALUE win chance 67.6% WON VALUE win chance 74.5% VOID VALUE win chance 74.5% VOID