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Iraqi League
Al-Karma vs Naft Maysan
Fri 06 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 4–1 · 1 won · 0 lost
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 86.9%
book 1.19x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (78.6%, n=28)
• type ledger 80% (n=1985)
• short price 1.19x
league track
proven · 78.6% of 28 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 60.5%)
draws 35.0% of matches
team history 17/18 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1985, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2521)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
86.9%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (86.9%)
@ 06 Nov 17:53 · 1.19x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
61.8%
Draw
25.0%
Away win
13.2%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:53
scoring fit λ 1.80 / μ 0.72
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 441 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
13.2%
|
7.6x | 47.6% n=441 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
25.0%
|
4.0x | 47.6% n=441 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
61.8%
|
1.62x | 47.6% n=441 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 5 meetings — Al-Karma 2W / 1D / 2L
· momentum Al-Karma 2.17 ppg vs Naft Maysan 0.33 ppg
Al-Karma · last 6
06 Nov · Iraqi League
4-1
W
30 Oct · Iraqi League
1-0
W
24 Oct · Iraqi League
2-1
L
17 Oct · Iraqi League
0-0
D
10 Oct · Iraqi League
3-2
W
19 Sep · Iraqi League
1-0
W
Naft Maysan · last 6
06 Nov · Iraqi League
4-1
L
30 Oct · Iraqi League
0-0
D
24 Oct · Iraqi League
1-0
L
16 Oct · Iraqi League
2-0
L
08 Oct · Iraqi League
1-1
D
17 Sep · Iraqi League
3-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Iraqi League
Al-Karma 4-1 Naft Maysan
14 May 26 · Iraqi League
Naft Maysan 1-1 Al-Karma
22 Feb 26 · Iraqi League
Al-Karma 3-0 Naft Maysan
20 Feb 25 · Iraqi League
Naft Maysan 3-2 Al-Karma
06 Dec 24 · Iraqi League
Al-Karma 1-2 Naft Maysan