Ticket #6249 · VALUE · risk MED
win chance 75.3%
fair 1.33x
Legs
| match | what you're picking | chance | fair | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Necaxa Women v Atlas Women
Thu 05 Nov 01:00 · Liga MX Femenil
|
Either team wins | 85.9% | 1.16x | upgrade |
|
Rapid Wien v Wolfsberger AC
Fri 06 Nov 20:30 · Bundesliga
|
Home or Draw | 87.7% | 1.14x | upgrade |
PAID shows bookmaker odds, edges and every value ticket.
Upgrade
EV & risk, decoded
EV — expected value: your expected profit per 1 unit staked at the current bookmaker price, given the calibrated probability. EV 0.12 = 12% expected return per ticket. Negative EV bets are never published.
win chance — the engine's chance this ticket WINS; fair odds = 1÷that probability. Book price above fair ⇒ positive EV.
Risk label — LOW = all legs priced & fresh, matches anchored to real odds; MED = mid-band probability or stale quotes; HIGH = unpriced leg included (tickets never ship in that state).
How the engine chose it: double joint p=0.753 (diff-league doubles: 73.5% win, n=528, 90d) | risk MED: mid-band joint probability | EV +0.084 means: staking 1 unit at odds 1.44 returns 0.08 units of expected profit per ticket (0.75 chance to win fair 1.33).