Ticket #7076 · SURESHOT · risk LOW
win chance 90.3%
fair 1.11x
Legs
| match | what you're picking | chance | fair | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Antigua GFC v Malacateco FC
Today 02:00 · Liga Nacional
|
Home or Draw | 90.3% | 1.11x | upgrade |
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EV & risk, decoded
EV — expected value: your expected profit per 1 unit staked at the current bookmaker price, given the calibrated probability. EV 0.12 = 12% expected return per ticket. Negative EV bets are never published.
win chance — the engine's chance this ticket WINS; fair odds = 1÷that probability. Book price above fair ⇒ positive EV.
Risk label — LOW = all legs priced & fresh, matches anchored to real odds; MED = mid-band probability or stale quotes; HIGH = unpriced leg included (tickets never ship in that state).
How the engine chose it: single p=0.903 (DC/DNB/FTR cp>=.90: 90.8% win, n=130, 90d) | risk LOW: all legs priced and fresh; matches anchored | EV +0.071 means: staking 1 unit at odds 1.19 returns 0.07 units of expected profit per ticket (0.90 chance to win fair 1.11).