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Liga Nacional
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco FC
Today 02:00 0 minutes final 1–0 · in progress
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 94.9%
book 1.19x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (74.4%, n=39)
• type ledger 80% (n=1979)
• short price 1.19x
• SELECT 90%+ (measured >=88%)
league track
proven · 74.4% of 39 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 58.9%)
draws 23.3% of matches
team history 22/18 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1979, 90d ledger)
measured band: 90.7% (n=162)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.1% hit (n=470)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
94.9%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (94.9%)
@ 09 Nov 00:19 · 1.19x
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
72.6%
Draw
22.3%
Away win
5.1%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:19
scoring fit λ 2.19 / μ 0.55
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 235 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
5.1%
|
19.71x | 51.5% n=235 | risky | – |
| Draw |
22.3%
|
4.49x | 51.5% n=235 | risky | – |
| top Home win |
72.6%
|
1.38x | 51.5% n=235 | solid | – |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Antigua GFC 6W / 3D / 3L
· momentum Antigua GFC 2.17 ppg vs Malacateco … 1.17 ppg
Antigua GFC · last 6
01 Nov · Liga Nacional
0-2
W
30 Oct · Liga Nacional
1-0
W
25 Oct · Liga Nacional
1-0
L
20 Oct · Liga Nacional
3-0
W
15 Oct · Liga Nacional
1-1
D
12 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-1
W
Malacateco FC · last 6
03 Nov · Liga Nacional
1-0
L
29 Oct · Liga Nacional
0-2
L
25 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-2
D
21 Oct · Liga Nacional
1-0
W
15 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-1
L
11 Oct · Liga Nacional
2-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
11 Sep 26 · Liga Nacional
Malacateco FC 0-2 Antigua GFC
20 Apr 26 · Liga Nacional
Antigua GFC 2-1 Malacateco FC
01 Mar 26 · Liga Nacional
Malacateco FC 2-2 Antigua GFC
01 Dec 25 · Liga Nacional
Antigua GFC 2-0 Malacateco FC
21 Sep 25 · Liga Nacional
Malacateco FC 3-1 Antigua GFC