Ticket #6843 · SURESHOT · risk MED
win chance 97.5%
fair 1.03x
Legs
| match | what you're picking | chance | fair | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Iliria Fushë-Krujë v Oriku
Sat 07 Nov 18:00 · 1st Division
|
Home or Draw | 97.5% | 1.03x | upgrade |
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EV & risk, decoded
EV — expected value: your expected profit per 1 unit staked at the current bookmaker price, given the calibrated probability. EV 0.12 = 12% expected return per ticket. Negative EV bets are never published.
win chance — the engine's chance this ticket WINS; fair odds = 1÷that probability. Book price above fair ⇒ positive EV.
Risk label — LOW = all legs priced & fresh, matches anchored to real odds; MED = mid-band probability or stale quotes; HIGH = unpriced leg included (tickets never ship in that state).
How the engine chose it: single p=0.975 (DC/DNB/FTR cp>=.90: 90.8% win, n=130, 90d) | risk MED: joint probability 0.97 outside the comfortable band | EV +0.044 means: staking 1 unit at odds 1.07 returns 0.04 units of expected profit per ticket (0.97 chance to win fair 1.03).