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1st Division

Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs Oriku

Sat 07 Nov 18:00 0 minutes final 0–0 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 90.5%
why
• league PROVEN (84.6%, n=26)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 84.6% of 26 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 66.5%)
draws 36.7% of matches
team history 10/10 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
90.5%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
81.9%
Draw
15.6%
Away win
2.5%
calibrated 07 Nov 18:01
scoring fit λ 2.19 / μ 0.25
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 30 Oct · 248 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
2.5%
39.97x 48.0% n=248 risky lost
Draw
15.6%
6.42x 48.0% n=248 risky won
top Home win
81.9%
1.22x 48.0% n=248 solid lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Iliria Fushë-… 0W / 1D / 0L · momentum Iliria Fush… 2.17 ppg vs Oriku 0.5 ppg
Iliria Fushë-Krujë · last 6
07 Nov · 1st Division 0-0 D
01 Nov · 1st Division 2-3 W
28 Oct · 1st Division 2-1 W
24 Oct · 1st Division 0-1 W
17 Oct · 1st Division 1-0 W
11 Oct · 1st Division 2-0 L
Oriku · last 6
07 Nov · 1st Division 0-0 D
01 Nov · 1st Division 0-1 L
28 Oct · 1st Division 0-0 D
24 Oct · 1st Division 1-1 D
17 Oct · 1st Division 1-4 L
11 Oct · 1st Division 2-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · 1st Division Iliria Fushë-Kr… 0-0 Oriku
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 97.5% WON SURESHOT win chance 81.1% VOID SURESHOT win chance 97.5% VOID SURESHOT win chance 97.5% VOID SURESHOT win chance 97.5% VOID SURESHOT win chance 98.1% VOID