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A Lyga

Sūduva Marijampolė vs Džiugas Telšiai

Sat 07 Nov 14:15 0 minutes final 0–1 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 84.1%
why
• league PROVEN (100.0%, n=12)
• type ledger 80% (n=1995)
league track
proven · 100.0% of 12 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 75.7%)
draws 20.0% of matches
team history 22/23 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.8% hit (n=1995, 90d ledger)
measured band: 81.5% (n=427)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3034)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
84.1%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
60.4%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
15.9%
calibrated 07 Nov 11:05
scoring fit λ 1.94 / μ 0.91
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 43 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
15.9%
6.29x 51.2% n=43 risky won
Draw
23.7%
4.22x 51.2% n=43 risky lost
top Home win
60.4%
1.66x 51.2% n=43 lean lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 14 meetings — Sūduva Marija… 5W / 4D / 5L · momentum Sūduva Mari… 0.67 ppg vs Džiugas Tel… 1.17 ppg
Sūduva Marijampolė · last 6
07 Nov · A Lyga 0-1 L
01 Nov · A Lyga 2-1 W
19 Oct · A Lyga 0-1 L
10 Oct · A Lyga 4-0 L
29 Sep · Friendlies Clubs 5-0 L
20 Sep · A Lyga 1-1 D
Džiugas Telšiai · last 6
07 Nov · A Lyga 0-1 W
31 Oct · A Lyga 2-1 L
25 Oct · A Lyga 2-1 W
17 Oct · A Lyga 3-3 D
19 Sep · A Lyga 2-0 L
06 Sep · A Lyga 5-0 L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · A Lyga Sūduva Marijamp… 0-1 Džiugas Telšiai
17 Aug 26 · A Lyga Džiugas Telšiai 0-2 Sūduva Marijamp…
21 Jun 26 · A Lyga Džiugas Telšiai 1-2 Sūduva Marijamp…
19 Apr 26 · A Lyga Sūduva Marijamp… 3-2 Džiugas Telšiai
18 Oct 25 · A Lyga Džiugas Telšiai 0-0 Sūduva Marijamp…
Tickets including this match
SURESHOT win chance 78.8% VOID SURESHOT win chance 77.4% VOID SURESHOT win chance 87.3% VOID SURESHOT win chance 79.0% VOID VALUE win chance 77.4% VOID VALUE win chance 77.4% VOID