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FAW Championship

Llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town

Fri 06 Nov 21:30 0 minutes final 3–3 · settled
Po
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Away, draw refunds · 77.3%
book 1.13x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (74.2%, n=31)
• type ledger 75% (n=12)
• short price 1.13x
• priced 1.13x needs 88% to break even
league track
proven · 74.2% of 31 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 56.8%)
draws 31.7% of matches
team history 15/13 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DNB-A: 75.0% hit (n=12, 90d ledger)
measured band: 62.7% (n=102)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2528)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
77.3%
Away, draw refunds
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Away, draw refunds solid (77.3%)
@ 06 Nov 17:54 · 1.13x
board also had Either team wins 84.0%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
19.1%
Draw
16.0%
Away win
64.9%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:54
scoring fit λ 1.16 / μ 2.34
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 467 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
64.9%
1.54x 54.2% n=467 lean lost
Draw
16.0%
6.24x 54.2% n=467 risky won
Home win
19.1%
5.25x 54.2% n=467 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Llanelli AFC 0W / 1D / 0L · momentum Llanelli AFC 0.17 ppg vs Pontardawe … 2.0 ppg
Llanelli AFC · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship 3-3 D
30 Oct · FAW Championship 4-0 L
23 Oct · FAW Championship 0-3 L
16 Oct · Welsh Cup 6-0 L
10 Oct · FAW Championship 6-2 L
02 Oct · FAW Championship 1-2 L
Pontardawe Town · last 6
06 Nov · FAW Championship 3-3 D
31 Oct · FAW Championship 2-1 W
17 Oct · Welsh Cup 1-1 D
10 Oct · FAW Championship 1-1 D
03 Oct · FAW Championship 2-3 W
26 Sep · FAW Championship 6-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · FAW Championship Llanelli AFC 3-3 Pontardawe Town
Tickets including this match
VALUE win chance 67.1% LOST VALUE win chance 72.1% VOID VALUE win chance 75.5% VOID VALUE win chance 75.5% VOID VALUE win chance 75.5% VOID VALUE win chance 75.5% VOID