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Premier League
GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United
Fri 06 Nov 22:00 0 minutes final 2–0 · 2 won · 0 lostFl
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 87.2%
book 1.18x · short <1.30x
why
• league PROVEN (85.3%, n=34)
• type ledger 80% (n=1986)
• short price 1.18x
league track
proven · 85.3% of 34 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 69.9%)
draws 11.7% of matches
team history 20/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1986, 90d ledger)
measured band: 85.0% (n=293)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
87.2%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
LOW risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Under 3.5 goals
lean (62.3%)
@ 06 Nov 18:09 · 1.60x
board also had Home or Draw 87.2%
pick won
Home or Draw
solid (87.2%)
@ 06 Nov 18:09 · 1.18x
pick won
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
69.7%
Draw
17.5%
Away win
12.8%
calibrated 06 Nov 18:09
scoring fit λ 2.20 / μ 0.80
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 31 Oct · 31 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
12.8%
|
7.82x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
17.5%
|
5.71x | 67.7% n=31 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
69.7%
|
1.44x | 67.7% n=31 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — GAP Connah S … 11W / 1D / 1L
· momentum GAP Connah … 2.67 ppg vs Flint Town … 1.5 ppg
GAP Connah S Quay FC · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
2-0
W
31 Oct · Premier League
0-0
D
24 Oct · Premier League
2-0
W
16 Oct · Welsh Cup
4-0
W
09 Oct · Premier League
1-2
W
03 Oct · Premier League
1-0
W
Flint Town United · last 6
06 Nov · Premier League
2-0
L
30 Oct · Premier League
5-0
W
23 Oct · Premier League
0-2
W
17 Oct · Welsh Cup
1-3
L
10 Oct · Premier League
0-1
L
03 Oct · Premier League
0-1
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Premier League
GAP Connah S Qu… 2-0 Flint Town Unit…
31 Aug 26 · Premier League
Flint Town Unit… 1-2 GAP Connah S Qu…
26 Dec 25 · Premier League
Flint Town Unit… 0-2 GAP Connah S Qu…
25 Aug 25 · Premier League
GAP Connah S Qu… 3-2 Flint Town Unit…
11 Mar 25 · Premier League
GAP Connah S Qu… 4-0 Flint Town Unit…