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Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes
Sat 07 Nov 21:45 0 minutes final 1–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 91.0%
why
• league PROVEN (76.7%, n=30)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 76.7% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.1%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 21/14 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
91.0%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
83.8%
Draw
12.4%
Away win
3.8%
calibrated 07 Nov 17:54
scoring fit λ 2.79 / μ 0.51
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
3.8%
|
26.36x | 43.8% n=448 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
12.4%
|
8.07x | 43.8% n=448 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
83.8%
|
1.19x | 43.8% n=448 | solid | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 1 meetings — Paris Saint G… 1W / 0D / 0L
· momentum Paris Saint… 3.0 ppg vs Estac Troyes 0.67 ppg
Paris Saint Germain · last 6
07 Nov · Ligue 1
1-0
W
03 Nov · UEFA Champions League
0-6
W
30 Oct · Ligue 1
1-5
W
25 Oct · Ligue 1
2-0
W
20 Oct · UEFA Champions League
4-2
W
17 Oct · Ligue 1
1-3
W
Estac Troyes · last 6
07 Nov · Ligue 1
1-0
L
31 Oct · Ligue 1
2-0
W
24 Oct · Ligue 1
0-0
D
17 Oct · Ligue 1
1-3
L
11 Oct · Ligue 1
0-2
L
19 Sep · Ligue 1
2-0
L
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Ligue 1
Paris Saint Ger… 1-0 Estac Troyes