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Primera División
Aurora vs Universitario de Vinto
Tomorrow 02:30 22 hours, 4 minutesUn
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Home or Draw · 76.7%
book 1.33x · even 1.30-1.55x
why
• league PROVEN (81.6%, n=38)
• type ledger 80% (n=1979)
• priced 1.33x - band hits ~65% (60d)
league track
proven · 81.6% of 38 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 66.6%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 29/26 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-1X: 79.9% hit (n=1979, 90d ledger)
measured band: 79.7% (n=576)
night 00-06 kickoffs: 75.1% hit (n=470)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
76.7%
Home or Draw
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Home or Draw
solid (76.7%)
@ 09 Nov 02:52 · 1.33x
board also had Over 1.5 goals 82.4%
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
55.1%
Draw
21.6%
Away win
23.3%
calibrated 09 Nov 02:52
scoring fit λ 2.00 / μ 1.24
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 187 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
23.3%
|
4.29x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
| Draw |
21.6%
|
4.63x | 50.8% n=187 | risky |
| top Home win |
55.1%
|
1.81x | 50.8% n=187 | lean |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 13 meetings — Aurora 6W / 4D / 3L
· momentum Aurora 1.33 ppg vs Universitar… 0.5 ppg
Aurora · last 6
02 Nov · Copa de la División P…
3-2
W
31 Oct · Primera División
1-1
D
25 Oct · Primera División
1-0
W
21 Oct · Copa de la División P…
4-0
L
17 Oct · Primera División
1-0
L
11 Oct · Primera División
2-2
D
Universitario de Vinto · last 6
02 Nov · Primera División
1-3
L
27 Oct · Primera División
2-1
L
17 Oct · Primera División
2-1
W
10 Oct · Primera División
1-3
L
08 Oct · Copa de la División P…
2-0
L
04 Oct · Copa de la División P…
5-2
L
Head-to-head last 5
19 Sep 26 · Copa de la División P…
Aurora 4-2 Universitario d…
02 Sep 26 · Copa de la División P…
Universitario d… 1-1 Aurora
02 Jun 26 · Primera División
Universitario d… 1-2 Aurora
08 Feb 26 · Torneo Amistoso de Ve…
Aurora 2-1 Universitario d…
31 Jan 26 · Torneo Amistoso de Ve…
Universitario d… 2-2 Aurora
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