HOME
Ligue 2
Saint-Étienne vs Laval
Fri 06 Nov 21:00 0 minutes final 2–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.8%
why
• league PROVEN (79.2%, n=24)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 79.2% of 24 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.5%)
draws 18.3% of matches
team history 20/18 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.0% hit (n=2522)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.8%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
61.4%
Draw
29.9%
Away win
8.7%
calibrated 06 Nov 17:58
scoring fit λ 2.09 / μ 0.83
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 341 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
8.7%
|
11.5x | 47.2% n=341 | risky | lost |
| Draw |
29.9%
|
3.35x | 47.2% n=341 | risky | lost |
| top Home win |
61.4%
|
1.63x | 47.2% n=341 | lean | won |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 3 meetings — Saint-Étienne 2W / 1D / 0L
· momentum Saint-Étien… 2.5 ppg vs Laval 1.17 ppg
Saint-Étienne · last 6
06 Nov · Ligue 2
2-0
W
31 Oct · Ligue 2
3-0
L
24 Oct · Ligue 2
1-0
W
17 Oct · Ligue 2
0-1
W
10 Oct · Ligue 2
2-0
W
02 Oct · Friendlies Clubs
5-1
W
Laval · last 6
06 Nov · Ligue 2
2-0
L
30 Oct · Ligue 2
1-0
W
23 Oct · Ligue 2
1-0
L
16 Oct · Ligue 2
3-3
D
09 Oct · Ligue 2
3-2
L
02 Oct · Friendlies Clubs
1-0
W
Head-to-head last 5
06 Nov 26 · Ligue 2
Saint-Étienne 2-0 Laval
21 Feb 26 · Ligue 2
Saint-Étienne 2-1 Laval
09 Aug 25 · Ligue 2
Laval 3-3 Saint-Étienne