HOME
Championship
Watford vs Middlesbrough
Sat 07 Nov 17:00 0 minutes final 0–0 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.2%
why
• league OK (64.3%, n=84)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 64.3% of 84 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 53.6%)
draws 21.7% of matches
team history 21/20 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.4% hit (n=3032)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.2%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
14.5%
Draw
23.1%
Away win
62.4%
calibrated 07 Nov 16:31
scoring fit λ 0.92 / μ 2.07
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 557 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
62.4%
|
1.6x | 45.4% n=557 | lean | lost |
| Draw |
23.1%
|
4.33x | 45.4% n=557 | risky | won |
| Home win |
14.5%
|
6.89x | 45.4% n=557 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 33 meetings — Watford 14W / 8D / 11L
· momentum Watford 1.17 ppg vs Middlesbrou… 1.83 ppg
Watford · last 6
07 Nov · Championship
0-0
D
03 Nov · Championship
1-0
W
31 Oct · Championship
3-2
L
24 Oct · Championship
1-0
L
17 Oct · Championship
2-0
W
13 Oct · Championship
5-1
L
Middlesbrough · last 6
07 Nov · Championship
0-0
D
04 Nov · Championship
2-0
L
31 Oct · Championship
3-0
W
23 Oct · Championship
1-5
W
17 Oct · Championship
2-2
D
13 Oct · Championship
2-3
W
Head-to-head last 5
07 Nov 26 · Championship
Watford 0-0 Middlesbrough
25 Apr 26 · Championship
Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford
01 Nov 25 · Championship
Watford 3-0 Middlesbrough
15 Feb 25 · Championship
Middlesbrough 0-1 Watford
05 Oct 24 · Championship
Watford 2-1 Middlesbrough