La Liga · Sep 12, 2026 21:00
Betting Verdict
2/4
SourcesHOME
Pick83%
Confidencex
Odds2 sources agree - Moderate confidence
ML (0)
Odds
Stats
Watched
Real Madrid
Spain
Spain
P50
W/D/L31/6/13
GF/GA104/60
CS14
Form: 8W 1D 1L
ATK 66% DEF 55% OVR 95%
ATK 66% DEF 55% OVR 95%
Alvaro Leiva (50)César Palacios (50)David Jiménez (50)
Rayo Vallecano
Spain
Spain
P50
W/D/L19/13/18
GF/GA64/68
CS13
Form: 3W 1D 6L
ATK 59% DEF 32% OVR 63%
ATK 59% DEF 32% OVR 63%
Jozhua Vertrouwd (50)Unai López (50)Juanpe (50)
Goal Trends
AI Predictions 1
Trusted Models (>50% acc) 1
HOME
Pick60.0%
Home25.0%
Draw15.0%
Away2.0-1.0
Score
Brain Engine 68%
2.0-1.0
H:1% D:0% A:0%
2.0-1.0
Consensus60.0%
Home25.0%
Draw15.0%
AwayOver/Under Markets
Both Teams To Score
54%
Yes
100%
No
Correct Score Probabilities
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.6%
1-1
9.5%
1-0
9.2%
3-1
6.9%
3-0
6.7%
2-2
5.1%
1-2
4.9%
0-1
4.5%
0-0
4.4%
3-2
3.6%
4-1
3.6%
4-0
3.5%
0-2
2.3%
4-2
1.9%
2-3
1.8%
1-3
1.7%
5-0
1.5%
5-1
1.5%
3-3
1.2%
0-3
0.8%
5-2
0.8%
4-3
0.6%
2-4
0.5%
1-4
0.4%
3-4
0.3%
5-3
0.3%
0-4
0.2%
4-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-5
0.1%
3-5
0.1%
5-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Market Tips
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| DC | 1X | 85.0% |
| O/U | Under 1.5 | 20.5% |
| O/U | Under 2.5 | 45.8% |
| O/U | Under 3.5 | 65.6% |
| O/U | Under 4.5 | 82.1% |
STRONG
BET · 68% confidence
Sources: central_brain, odds, stability
Value Edge: -20.5%
No player data available yet. Player stats become available 30 minutes before kickoff.
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid
50.0%
5 Wins
4 D
Rayo Vallecano
10.0%
1 Wins
Feb 01, 2026
Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Nov 09, 2025
Rayo Vallecano --- Real Madrid
Mar 09, 2025
Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Dec 14, 2024
Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Madrid
Feb 18, 2024
Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Real Madrid
Nov 05, 2023
Real Madrid --- Rayo Vallecano
May 24, 2023
Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Nov 07, 2022
Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Real Madrid
Feb 26, 2022
Rayo Vallecano --1 Real Madrid
Nov 06, 2021
Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano