Friendlies Clubs · Jul 11, 2026 12:00
Estrela da Amadora PWR 38
Alverca
PWR 51
2-1
predicted
Estrela da Amadora PWR 38
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Yes
BTTS · Both score (2.0 & 1.5/g) and concede (2.0 & 2.0/g)
83%
accuracy
1.65x
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Alverca to win (60% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
60%
Tier
STANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (10%)2-1 (9%)3-0 (9%)3-1 (8%)1-0 (8%)1-1 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
64%
64%
Under 2.5
36%
BTTS
Yes 55%
Over 3.5
27%
Team Comparison
74Attack56
30Defense30
Goals/G
2.01.5
Conc/G
2.02.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
2.02.0
Alverca
LDLWL
STABLE
Estrela da Ama…
DDLLL
STABLE
Squad & Player Stats
Alverca
Estrela da …
| # | Player | Pos | App | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nabil Touaizi | Mid | 6.95 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Sergi Gomez | Def | 6.86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Kaiky Naves | Def | 6.72 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Isaac James | Mid | 6.65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Figueiredo | For | 6.55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 33 | Bastien Meupiyou | Def | 6.53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 31 | Matheus Mendes | Goa | 6.48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Lincoln | Mid | 6.42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 91 | Sandro Lima | For | 6.39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 26 | Rhaldney | Mid | 6.38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Chiquinho | For | 6.31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Steven Baseya | Def | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Marko Milovanović | For | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 82 | Diogo Spencer | Def | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Davy Gui | Mid | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Mathis Clairicia | For | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Cédric Nuozzi | For | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 35 | Zakaria Kassary | Mid | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| - | Stéphane Diarra | For | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Vasco Moreira | Mid | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): Friendlies Clubs
Expected Goals (xG)
2.66
Alvercavs
0.90
Estrela da Ama…Goal Probability
Alverca
0
7%
1
19%
2
25%
3
22%
4
15%
Estrela da …
0
41%
1
37%
2
17%
3
5%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (12%)1-0 (11%)2-1 (9%)2-0 (9%)0-1 (8%)0-0 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 74% | 27% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% | - |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 12% | 88% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#1648
Alverca-487
Gap#1161
Estrela da …
WR 50% 3 pts
WR 25% 5 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Estrela da Am… | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
Alverca
6.0%
| May 16 | Alverca v Famalic… | 1-0 |
| May 10 | Alverca v Estoril | 1-1 |
| May 02 | Alverca v FC Porto | 1-0 |
| Apr 24 | Alverca v Arouca | 2-1 |
| Apr 18 | Alverca v Nacional | 1-0 |
| Apr 12 | Alverca v Casa Pi… | 3-1 |
| Apr 04 | Alverca v Rio Ave… | 1-2 |
| Mar 22 | Alverca v Sportin… | 1-4 |
| Mar 14 | Alverca v GIL Vic… | 2-2 |
| Mar 07 | Alverca v AVS | 0-0 |
Estrela da Ama…
4.0%
| May 16 | Estrela… v SC Braga | 2-2 |
| May 11 | Estrela… v Famalic… | 0-0 |
| May 02 | Estrela… v Moreire… | 3-2 |
| Apr 26 | Estrela… v FC Porto | 1-2 |
| Apr 19 | Estrela… v Arouca | 1-0 |
| Apr 11 | Estrela… v Sportin… | 0-1 |
| Apr 04 | Estrela… v Nacional | 2-0 |
| Mar 20 | Estrela… v Casa Pi… | 4-0 |
| Mar 15 | Estrela… v Rio Ave… | 2-1 |
| Mar 08 | Estrela… v GIL Vic… | 2-2 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Jan 31, 2026 | Alverca | 1-1 | Estrela da Am… |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Estrela da Am… | 2-2 | Alverca |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
50%
Momentum
90%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (40%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Alverca struggling (3L in last 5)
Estrela da Amadora struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.