Cup · Jul 11, 2026 15:00
BFC Daugavpils PWR 23
Riga Mariners
PWR 86
8-1
predicted
BFC Daugavpils PWR 23
59%
22%
19%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Over 2.5
Goals · Home scores 4.2/g, Away concedes 2.0/g, expected 3.9 goals
75%
accuracy
1.75x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Riga Mariners Win
Score
8-1
Confidence
78%
Tier
Strong Pick
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (27%)2-0 (20%)0-0 (18%)3-0 (10%)1-1 (6%)2-1 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.75x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.65x
Over 2.5
24%
Under 2.5
76%
76%
BTTS
No
No 16%
Over 3.5
30%
Team Comparison
100Attack35
83Defense30
Goals/G
4.31.0
Conc/G
0.52.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Riga Mariners
WWWWW
UP
BFC Daugavpils
WLDWD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk25%
Accuracy82%
FORM_MOMENTUMFORM_DOMINANTHOME_STREAKPOSITION_GAPTABLE_EXTREMES
Full data available (Tier 1)Away team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (25.0%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Riga Marinersvs
0.24
BFC DaugavpilsGoal Probability
Riga Marine…
0
23%
1
34%
2
25%
3
12%
4
5%
BFC Daugavp…
0
79%
1
19%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (16%)1-0 (14%)3-0 (13%)2-1 (8%)4-0 (7%)1-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 77% | 24% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% | - |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 15% | 85% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#9
Riga Marine…+37
Gap#46
BFC Daugavp…
WR 75% 10 pts
WR 0% 0 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga Mariners | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 10 |
| BFC Daugavpils | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Riga Mariners
20.0%
| Jul 04 | Riga Ma… v JDFS Al… | 0-4 |
| Jun 27 | Riga Ma… v Mārupe | 2-0 |
| Jun 20 | Riga Ma… v JDFS Al… | 1-0 |
| Jun 14 | Riga Ma… v Skanste | 0-2 |
| May 30 | Riga Ma… v Rfk/rfs | 0-11 |
| May 23 | Riga Ma… v Metta /… | 2-2 |
| May 16 | Riga Ma… v Valmier… | 3-1 |
| May 09 | Riga Ma… v Smiltene | 1-0 |
| May 02 | Riga Ma… v Rēzekne… | 2-2 |
| Apr 25 | Riga Ma… v Rīgas F… | 1-2 |
BFC Daugavpils
12.0%
| Jul 04 | BFC Dau… v FK Liep… | 3-1 |
| Jun 30 | BFC Dau… v Rīgas FS | 3-1 |
| Jun 25 | BFC Dau… v Riga FC | 0-0 |
| Jun 20 | BFC Dau… v Grobiņa | 1-0 |
| Jun 16 | BFC Dau… v Super N… | 0-0 |
| Jun 12 | BFC Dau… v Tukums | 1-1 |
| May 31 | BFC Dau… v FS Jelg… | 1-1 |
| May 26 | BFC Dau… v Auda | 0-1 |
| May 21 | BFC Dau… v Ogre Un… | 3-1 |
| May 17 | BFC Dau… v FK Liep… | 2-1 |
Decision Breakdown
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
83%
Standings
50%
Market
41%
High draw risk (38%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Riga Mariners in strong form (5W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.