Cup · Jul 12, 2026 14:00
Grobiņa PWR 21
Mārupe
PWR 83
6-1
predicted
Grobiņa PWR 21
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Over 2.5
Goals · Home scores 3.4/g, Away concedes 2.8/g, expected 4.1 goals
75%
accuracy
1.75x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Mārupe Win
Score
6-1
Confidence
63%
Tier
Standard Pick
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (27%)0-0 (19%)2-0 (19%)3-0 (9%)1-1 (6%)0-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
22%
Under 2.5
78%
78%
BTTS
No
No 16%
Over 3.5
45%
Team Comparison
100Attack35
65Defense4
Goals/G
3.41.0
Conc/G
1.02.8
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Mārupe
WLWLW
STABLE
Grobiņa
WLDLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk24%
Accuracy73%
FORM_DOMINANTPOSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)Elevated draw risk (23.9%) - consider AHBelow minimum tier (need PREMIUM+, got GOLD/3 rules)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Mārupevs
0.23
GrobiņaGoal Probability
Mārupe
0
24%
1
34%
2
24%
3
11%
4
4%
Grobiņa
0
80%
1
18%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (10%)2-1 (10%)3-0 (8%)1-0 (8%)3-1 (8%)1-1 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 86% | 15% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% | - |
| 4.5 | 26% | 74% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 13% | 87% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Mārupe+39
Gap#40
Grobiņa
WR 86% 19 pts
WR 25% 3 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mārupe | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| Grobiņa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
Mārupe
12.0%
| Jul 04 | Mārupe v Smiltene | 2-1 |
| Jun 27 | Mārupe v Riga Ma… | 2-0 |
| Jun 19 | Mārupe v Aliance | 4-2 |
| Jun 14 | Mārupe v JFK Ven… | 1-2 |
| May 30 | Mārupe v JFC Jel… | 1-2 |
| May 23 | Mārupe v Rīgas F… | 1-4 |
| May 17 | Mārupe v Riga FC… | 0-4 |
| May 09 | Mārupe v Tukums … | 1-2 |
| May 02 | Mārupe v Super N… | 0-1 |
| Apr 25 | Mārupe v JDFS Al… | 2-1 |
Grobiņa
10.0%
| Jul 05 | Grobiņa v Tukums | 3-1 |
| Jun 29 | Grobiņa v FS Jelg… | 2-0 |
| Jun 25 | Grobiņa v Auda | 0-0 |
| Jun 20 | Grobiņa v BFC Dau… | 1-0 |
| Jun 16 | Grobiņa v FK Liep… | 1-0 |
| Jun 13 | Grobiņa v Rīgas FS | 1-3 |
| May 29 | Grobiņa v Riga FC | 2-0 |
| May 25 | Grobiņa v Ogre Un… | 1-1 |
| May 20 | Grobiņa v Super N… | 0-2 |
| May 15 | Grobiņa v Tukums | 3-3 |
Decision Breakdown
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)TOP3vsBot (75.8%)HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)TOP3_VS_REL (80.8%)GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
82%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (49%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Mārupe in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.