UEFA Europa League · Jul 16, 2026 17:30
Derry City PWR 25
CSKA Sofia PWR 76
Derry City PWR 25
2-3
predicted
CSKA Sofia PWR 76
39%
26%
35%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Yes
BTTS · Both score (2.0 & 3.0/g) and concede (3.0 & 2.0/g)
83%
accuracy
1.65x
Final Verdict
Prediction
ELITE: CSKA Sofia to win (85% confidence)
Score
2-3
Confidence
85%
Tier
Strong Pick
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (24%)2-0 (19%)0-0 (16%)3-0 (10%)1-1 (7%)2-1 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
28%
Under 2.5
72%
72%
BTTS
No
No 20%
Over 3.5
26%
Team Comparison
70Attack100
0Defense30
Goals/G
2.03.0
Conc/G
3.02.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Derry City
LLWDL
DOWN
CSKA Sofia
WWLLD
STABLE
Squad & Player Stats
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
| # | Player | Pos | App | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | Brandon Fleming | Def | 7.32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Jamie Stott | Def | 6.89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| - | Adam O'Reilly | Mid | 6.89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 28 | James Olayinka | Mid | 6.83 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2 | Barry Cotter | Def | 6.74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 23 | Cameron Dummigan | Mid | 6.74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Darragh Markey | For | 6.63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 20 | Carl Winchester | Mid | 6.61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Afolabi Akinyemi | For | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Eddie Beach | Goa | 6.47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Patrick McClean | Def | 6.38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Ben Doherty | Def | 6.26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Josh Thomas | For | 6.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | James Clarke | For | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 26 | Shea Callister | Goa | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | KĂ©vin Santos | Mid | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 22 | Conor Barr | Def | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | Michael Duffy | Mid | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 31 | Callum Downey | Mid | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Henry Rylah | Mid | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): UEFA Europa League
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Derry Cityvs
0.29
CSKA SofiaGoal Probability
Derry City
0
21%
1
33%
2
26%
3
13%
4
5%
CSKA Sofia
0
75%
1
22%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (12%)1-0 (12%)2-1 (9%)2-0 (9%)0-1 (8%)0-0 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 92% | 8% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 73% | 28% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% | - |
| 3.5 | 26% | 75% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 12% | 88% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#104
Derry City-33
Gap#71
CSKA Sofia
WR 0% 0 pts
WR 100% 3 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| CSKA Sofia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Derry City
6.0%
| Jul 09 | Derry C… v CSKA So… | 3-2 |
| Jul 03 | Derry C… v Waterfo… | 2-4 |
| Jun 26 | Derry C… v Droghed… | 2-0 |
| Jun 22 | Derry C… v Shamroc… | 1-1 |
| Jun 19 | Derry C… v Galway … | 2-1 |
| Jun 12 | Derry C… v Bohemia… | 4-1 |
| May 29 | Derry C… v Dundalk | 2-1 |
| May 25 | Derry C… v Shelbou… | 0-0 |
| May 22 | Derry C… v St Patr… | 0-0 |
| May 15 | Derry C… v Waterfo… | 2-2 |
CSKA Sofia
10.0%
| Jul 09 | CSKA So… v Derry C… | 3-2 |
| Jul 03 | CSKA So… v Marek | 3-0 |
| Jun 24 | CSKA So… v Polessya | 0-4 |
| May 25 | CSKA So… v Ludogor… | 1-0 |
| May 20 | CSKA So… v Lokomot… | 1-1 |
| May 16 | CSKA So… v Levski … | 2-0 |
| May 13 | CSKA So… v CSKA 19… | 1-1 |
| May 08 | CSKA So… v CSKA 19… | 0-1 |
| May 03 | CSKA So… v Ludogor… | 1-0 |
| Apr 29 | CSKA So… v Ludogor… | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| Jul 09, 2026 | CSKA Sofia | 3-2 | Derry City |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
84%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Derry City struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.