Primera DivisiĂłn - Apertura · Jul 18, 2026 19:00
Peñarol Montevideo PWR 35
Boston River PWR 39
Peñarol Montevideo PWR 35
1-0
predicted
Boston River PWR 39
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
PRO: Peñarol Montevideo to win (65% confidence)
Score
1-0
Confidence
65%
Tier
PRO
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (24%)2-0 (20%)0-0 (15%)3-0 (11%)1-1 (6%)2-1 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
30%
Under 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
No
No 19%
Over 3.5
31%
Team Comparison
0Attack11
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.02.0
Peñarol Montev…
WLLWD
STABLE
Boston River
DLLLW
STABLE
Squad & Player Stats
Peñarol Mon…
Boston River
| # | Player | Pos | App | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | JesĂşs Trindade | Mid | 6.68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Maximiliano Olive… | Mid | 6.65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Mauricio Lemos | Def | 6.59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Lucas Ferreira | Def | 6.57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 5 | Eric Remedi | Mid | 6.57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| - | Washington Aguerre | Goa | 6.55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | MatĂas Arezo | For | 6.52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2 | Franco Escobar | Def | 6.33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 32 | Leandro Umpierrez | Mid | 6.31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| - | Diego Laxalt | Def | 6.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Nicolás Fernández | Mid | 6.24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Facundo Batista | For | 6.21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| - | Paulo Da Costa | Goa | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| - | Franco González | Mid | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| - | Abel Hernández | For | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| - | Andrés Madruga | Def | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | GastĂłn Togni | For | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| - | Tomas Olase | Mid | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | German Barbas | Mid | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| - | Luis DĂaz | Goa | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): Apertura
Expected Goals (xG)
1.67
Peñarol Montev…vs
0.26
Boston RiverGoal Probability
Peñarol Mon…
0
19%
1
31%
2
26%
3
15%
4
6%
Boston River
0
77%
1
20%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (11%)2-0 (11%)1-1 (10%)2-1 (10%)3-0 (7%)3-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 54% | 47% | - |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 16% | 85% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 7% | 93% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 3% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#4
Peñarol Mon…+9
Gap#13
Boston River
WR 38% 27 pts
WR 29% 17 pts
Peñarol Montev…
10.0%
| Jun 07 | Peñarol… v Cerro | 0-1 |
| Jun 01 | Peñarol… v Central… | 0-1 |
| May 28 | Peñarol… v Santa Fe | 0-1 |
| May 24 | Peñarol… v Defenso… | 0-2 |
| May 22 | Peñarol… v Corinth… | 1-1 |
| May 16 | Peñarol… v Liverpo… | 2-1 |
| May 11 | Peñarol… v Cerro L… | 2-3 |
| May 08 | Peñarol… v Platense | 1-1 |
| May 04 | Peñarol… v Defenso… | 1-1 |
| May 01 | Peñarol… v Corinth… | 2-0 |
Boston River
6.0%
| Jun 07 | Boston … v Defenso… | 1-1 |
| Jun 01 | Boston … v Liverpo… | 0-1 |
| May 27 | Boston … v São Pau… | 2-0 |
| May 23 | Boston … v Cerro L… | 3-0 |
| May 21 | Boston … v O'Higgi… | 3-2 |
| May 16 | Boston … v Cerro | 4-1 |
| May 11 | Boston … v Deporti… | 2-1 |
| May 08 | Boston … v Millona… | 2-4 |
| May 03 | Boston … v Central… | 2-1 |
| Apr 29 | Boston … v O'Higgi… | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Mar 25, 2026 | Boston River | 0-2 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-2 | Boston River |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Boston River | 2-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-1 | Boston River |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-0 | Boston River |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Boston River | 1-3 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Feb 06, 2024 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-0 | Boston River |
| Sep 02, 2023 | Boston River | 0-1 | Peñarol Monte… |
| Jul 16, 2023 | Peñarol Monte… | 2-1 | Boston River |
| Feb 20, 2023 | Peñarol Monte… | 1-0 | Boston River |
Decision Breakdown
M85+S60 (75.3%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
50%
Momentum
86%
Standings
66%
Market
50%
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Boston River struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.