USL League One Cup · Jul 12, 2026 00:00
Louisville City FC PWR 35
Lexington PWR 35
Louisville City FC PWR 35
5-2
predicted
Lexington PWR 35
41%
26%
33%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Louisville City FC Win
Score
5-2
Confidence
35%
Tier
SKIP
LIKELY SCORES
0-1 (13%)1-1 (11%)0-2 (11%)1-2 (10%)0-0 (8%)1-0 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.33x
DC X2
Away/Draw
2.36x
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
BTTS
No 47%
Over 3.5
46%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Louisville Cit…
WDDWD
STABLE
Lexington
WDWDW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 3/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (29.3%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.85
Louisville Cit…vs
1.70
LexingtonGoal Probability
Louisville …
0
43%
1
36%
2
15%
3
4%
4
1%
Lexington
0
18%
1
31%
2
26%
3
15%
4
6%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (9%)1-2 (9%)2-1 (7%)2-2 (7%)0-1 (6%)0-2 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% | - |
| 4.5 | 27% | 73% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Louisville …+2
Gap#3
Lexington
WR 100% 6 pts
WR 100% 5 pts
Louisville Cit…
14.0%
| Jul 05 | Louisvi… v Hartfor… | 1-0 |
| Jun 20 | Louisvi… v Detroit… | 0-0 |
| Jun 14 | Louisvi… v Brooklyn | 2-2 |
| Jun 11 | Louisvi… v Phoenix… | 0-2 |
| Jun 04 | Louisvi… v Birming… | 1-1 |
| May 30 | Louisvi… v Tampa B… | 0-2 |
| May 23 | Louisvi… v Miami FC | 4-3 |
| May 17 | Louisvi… v Union O… | 1-5 |
| May 09 | Louisvi… v Pittsbu… | 0-2 |
| May 02 | Louisvi… v Detroit… | 2-1 |
Lexington
16.0%
| Jul 04 | Lexingt… v Tampa B… | 1-4 |
| Jun 20 | Lexingt… v Indy El… | 0-0 |
| Jun 13 | Lexingt… v San Ant… | 2-0 |
| Jun 06 | Lexingt… v Detroit… | 1-1 |
| May 31 | Lexingt… v El Paso… | 1-4 |
| May 23 | Lexingt… v Indy El… | 3-1 |
| May 08 | Lexingt… v Montere… | 3-1 |
| May 03 | Lexingt… v Las Veg… | 2-1 |
| Apr 25 | Lexingt… v Forward… | 4-2 |
| Apr 19 | Lexingt… v Orange … | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| Apr 01, 2026 | Lexington | 0-2 | Louisville Ci… |
| Mar 07, 2026 | Lexington | 1-2 | Louisville Ci… |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Lexington | 1-2 | Louisville Ci… |
| May 02, 2025 | Louisville Ci… | 2-0 | Lexington |
| Feb 24, 2025 | Louisville Ci… | 3-2 | Lexington |
| Apr 05, 2023 | Louisville Ci… | 1-0 | Lexington |
Decision Breakdown
HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player
40%
Momentum
38%
Standings
53%
Market
59%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Lexington in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.