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Primeira Liga
Estoril vs Marítimo
Sun 08 Nov 17:30 0 minutes
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 6.5 goals · 94.1%
why
• league OK (63.6%, n=22)
• type ledger 100% (n=28)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 63.6% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 43.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 14/15 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.1%
Under 6.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
44.1%
Draw
28.8%
Away win
27.1%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.73 / μ 1.34
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 308 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
27.1%
|
3.69x | 55.2% n=308 | risky |
| Draw |
28.8%
|
3.47x | 55.2% n=308 | risky |
| top Home win |
44.1%
|
2.27x | 55.2% n=308 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 16 meetings — Estoril 5W / 7D / 4L
· momentum Estoril 0.17 ppg vs Marítimo 0.67 ppg
Estoril · last 6
31 Oct · Primeira Liga
4-0
L
25 Oct · Primeira Liga
1-3
L
18 Oct · Taça de Portugal
1-1
D
10 Oct · Primeira Liga
2-1
L
20 Sep · Primeira Liga
1-2
L
14 Sep · Primeira Liga
1-0
L
Marítimo · last 6
01 Nov · Primeira Liga
0-2
L
27 Oct · Taça da Liga
2-1
L
23 Oct · Primeira Liga
5-0
L
18 Oct · Taça de Portugal
1-2
W
10 Oct · Primeira Liga
1-2
L
19 Sep · Primeira Liga
1-1
D
Head-to-head last 5
27 May 23 · Primeira Liga
Estoril 3-1 Marítimo
22 Jan 23 · Primeira Liga
Marítimo 1-0 Estoril
05 Feb 22 · Primeira Liga
Marítimo 0-0 Estoril
27 Aug 21 · Primeira Liga
Estoril 2-1 Marítimo
07 Apr 18 · Primeira Liga
Estoril 1-1 Marítimo