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Championship
Newington Youth vs Warrenpoint Town
Fri 13 Nov 21:45 1 day, 20 hours
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RECOMMENDED
RECOMMENDED
Either team wins · 76.5%
why
• league OK (66.7%, n=33)
• type ledger 79% (n=2310)
league track
ok · 66.7% of 33 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 49.6%)
draws 26.7% of matches
team history 19/16 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
DC-12: 78.5% hit (n=2310, 90d ledger)
measured band: 77.3% (n=950)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 76.5% hit (n=2555)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Recommended
76.5%
Either team wins
engine's strongest option for this match
MED risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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Pick validation — what the engine actually published
This grades the engine's ledger bet, not the board's suggestion. When the published leg was rated risky while a stronger leg existed, it is flagged.
Either team wins
solid (76.5%)
@ 11 Nov 23:57
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
46.6%
Draw
23.5%
Away win
29.9%
calibrated 11 Nov 23:57
scoring fit λ 1.94 / μ 1.53
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 06 Nov · 332 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away win |
29.9%
|
3.34x | 48.2% n=332 | risky |
| Draw |
23.5%
|
4.26x | 48.2% n=332 | risky |
| top Home win |
46.6%
|
2.15x | 48.2% n=332 | risky |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 8 meetings — Newington You… 4W / 0D / 4L
· momentum Newington Y… 1.5 ppg vs Warrenpoint… 1.83 ppg
Newington Youth · last 6
07 Nov · Championship
0-6
W
23 Oct · Championship
0-2
W
20 Oct · League Cup
1-3
L
16 Oct · Championship
2-3
W
09 Oct · Championship
0-2
L
03 Oct · Championship
7-0
L
Warrenpoint Town · last 6
07 Nov · Championship
1-4
L
21 Oct · League Cup
5-2
W
17 Oct · Championship
2-2
D
10 Oct · Championship
1-0
W
03 Oct · Championship
1-1
D
25 Sep · Championship
0-2
W
Head-to-head last 5
05 Sep 26 · Championship
Warrenpoint Town 0-1 Newington Youth
10 Mar 26 · Championship
Warrenpoint Town 2-4 Newington Youth
14 Feb 26 · Championship
Newington Youth 4-0 Warrenpoint Town
27 Sep 25 · Championship
Newington Youth 3-0 Warrenpoint Town
28 Jan 23 · Championship
Warrenpoint Town 2-0 Newington Youth