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Primeira Liga
Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica
Sun 08 Nov 22:30 0 minutes final 2–3 · settled
AWAY
Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.8%
why
• league OK (63.6%, n=22)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 63.6% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 43.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 17/25 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 92.9% (n=4118)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2518)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.8%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick.
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1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
9.0%
Draw
19.3%
Away win
71.7%
calibrated 09 Nov 00:18
scoring fit λ 0.82 / μ 2.46
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 308 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value.
green ≥ 66%
amber 45–66%
red < 45%
BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
| pick | chance | fair | backtest | verdict | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| top Away win |
71.7%
|
1.4x | 55.2% n=308 | solid | won |
| Draw |
19.3%
|
5.17x | 55.2% n=308 | risky | lost |
| Home win |
9.0%
|
11.17x | 55.2% n=308 | risky | lost |
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 12 meetings — Estrela da Am… 0W / 0D / 12L
· momentum Estrela da … 0.5 ppg vs Benfica 3.0 ppg
Estrela da Amadora · last 6
08 Nov · Primeira Liga
2-3
L
31 Oct · Primeira Liga
2-1
L
24 Oct · Primeira Liga
0-2
L
17 Oct · Taça de Portugal
1-2
W
11 Oct · Primeira Liga
1-0
L
20 Sep · Primeira Liga
0-2
L
Benfica · last 6
08 Nov · Primeira Liga
2-3
W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League
3-1
W
02 Nov · Primeira Liga
1-0
W
29 Oct · Taça da Liga
4-1
W
26 Oct · Primeira Liga
1-2
W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
1-4
W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Primeira Liga
Estrela da Amad… 2-3 Benfica
25 Jan 26 · Primeira Liga
Benfica 4-0 Estrela da Amad…
16 Aug 25 · Primeira Liga
Estrela da Amad… 0-1 Benfica
03 Feb 25 · Primeira Liga
Estrela da Amad… 2-3 Benfica
24 Nov 24 · Taça de Portugal
Benfica 7-0 Estrela da Amad…