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Primeira Liga

Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente

Sun 08 Nov 17:30 0 minutes final 1–2 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 93.9%
why
• league OK (63.6%, n=22)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 63.6% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 43.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 14/15 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
afternoon 12-18 kickoffs: 74.5% hit (n=3023)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
93.9%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
43.6%
Draw
30.4%
Away win
26.1%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.48 / μ 1.11
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 308 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
26.1%
3.84x 55.2% n=308 risky won
Draw
30.4%
3.29x 55.2% n=308 risky lost
top Home win
43.6%
2.29x 55.2% n=308 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 18 meetings — Santa Clara 10W / 4D / 4L · momentum Santa Clara 1.17 ppg vs GIL Vicente 1.67 ppg
Santa Clara · last 6
08 Nov · Primeira Liga 1-2 L
01 Nov · Primeira Liga 0-2 W
26 Oct · Primeira Liga 1-2 L
18 Oct · Taça de Portugal 3-2 L
10 Oct · Primeira Liga 0-1 W
20 Sep · Primeira Liga 0-0 D
GIL Vicente · last 6
08 Nov · Primeira Liga 1-2 W
02 Nov · Primeira Liga 0-0 D
29 Oct · Taça da Liga 4-1 L
24 Oct · Primeira Liga 0-1 L
14 Oct · Taça de Portugal 2-3 W
09 Oct · Primeira Liga 0-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Primeira Liga Santa Clara 1-2 GIL Vicente
21 Mar 26 · Primeira Liga Santa Clara 1-0 GIL Vicente
04 Nov 25 · Primeira Liga GIL Vicente 1-0 Santa Clara
15 Mar 25 · Primeira Liga GIL Vicente 0-1 Santa Clara
25 Oct 24 · Primeira Liga Santa Clara 2-1 GIL Vicente