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Primeira Liga

Guimaraes vs FC Porto

Sun 08 Nov 20:00 0 minutes final 1–2 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Under 5.5 goals · 92.2%
why
• league OK (63.6%, n=22)
• type ledger 91% (n=47)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
ok · 63.6% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 43.0%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 18/18 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-U5.5: 91.5% hit (n=47, 90d ledger)
measured band: 96.7% (n=30)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.2%
Under 5.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
19.5%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
54.8%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 0.95 / μ 1.73
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 308 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
54.8%
1.83x 55.2% n=308 risky won
Draw
25.7%
3.89x 55.2% n=308 risky lost
Home win
19.5%
5.12x 55.2% n=308 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 61 meetings — Guimaraes 8W / 6D / 47L · momentum Guimaraes 1.33 ppg vs FC Porto 2.5 ppg
Guimaraes · last 6
08 Nov · Primeira Liga 1-2 L
02 Nov · Primeira Liga 0-0 D
23 Oct · Primeira Liga 5-0 W
17 Oct · Taça de Portugal 0-0 D
11 Oct · Primeira Liga 2-0 L
25 Sep · Friendlies Clubs 0-1 W
FC Porto · last 6
08 Nov · Primeira Liga 1-2 W
04 Nov · UEFA Champions League 4-1 W
31 Oct · Primeira Liga 4-0 W
28 Oct · Taça da Liga 1-0 W
24 Oct · Primeira Liga 0-1 W
20 Oct · UEFA Champions League 0-1 L
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Primeira Liga Guimaraes 1-2 FC Porto
19 Jan 26 · Primeira Liga Guimaraes 0-1 FC Porto
05 Dec 25 · Taça da Liga FC Porto 1-3 Guimaraes
11 Aug 25 · Primeira Liga FC Porto 3-0 Guimaraes
25 Feb 25 · Primeira Liga FC Porto 1-1 Guimaraes