NetScore Engine v2

Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK

RISK

Under 6.5 goals · 94.5%

why

• league OK (63.6%, n=22)

• type ledger 100% (n=28)

• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)

league track

ok · 63.6% of 22 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 43.0%)

draws 16.7% of matches

team history 16/26 games (180d)

bet type · time of day

OU-U6.5: 100.0% hit (n=28, 90d ledger)

measured band: 93.6% (n=1945)

evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)

What we suggest

All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.

Strongest leg · risky

94.5%

Under 6.5 goals

top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.

HIGH risk

Value

No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.

PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade

1X2 — engine vs market

Home win

17.3%

Draw

25.3%

Away win

57.4%

calibrated 09 Nov 00:18

scoring fit λ 0.99 / μ 1.92

model–market gap 0.0%

Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID

backtested 28 Oct · 308 matches of this league

fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.

1X2

pick	chance	fair	backtest	verdict	result
top Away win	57.4%	1.74x	55.2% n=308	lean	won
Draw	25.3%	3.95x	55.2% n=308	risky	lost
Home win	17.3%	5.79x	55.2% n=308	risky	lost

Form & head-to-head

H2H record: 47 meetings — Rio Ave FC 9W / 12D / 26L · momentum Rio Ave FC 1.0 ppg vs SC Braga 1.83 ppg

Rio Ave FC · last 6

08 Nov · Primeira Liga 0-1 L

01 Nov · Primeira Liga 2-1 L

25 Oct · Primeira Liga 0-4 L

17 Oct · Taça de Portugal 0-1 W

11 Oct · Primeira Liga 3-2 W

19 Sep · Primeira Liga 1-0 L

SC Braga · last 6

08 Nov · Primeira Liga 0-1 W

05 Nov · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 0-0 D

01 Nov · Primeira Liga 3-0 W

29 Oct · Taça da Liga 2-2 D

25 Oct · Primeira Liga 1-0 L

22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conferenc… 2-0 W

Head-to-head last 5

08 Nov 26 · Primeira Liga Rio Ave FC 0-1 SC Braga

08 Feb 26 · Primeira Liga SC Braga 3-0 Rio Ave FC

31 Aug 25 · Primeira Liga Rio Ave FC 2-2 SC Braga

03 Mar 25 · Primeira Liga Rio Ave FC 2-1 SC Braga

02 Mar 25 · Primeira Liga Rio Ave FC 2-1 SC Braga

Rio Ave FC vs SC Braga