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Ligue 1

Angers vs Nice

Sun 08 Nov 18:15 0 minutes final 0–2 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 92.2%
why
• league PROVEN (76.7%, n=30)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 76.7% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.1%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 14/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
92.2%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
27.3%
Draw
27.2%
Away win
45.6%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.17 / μ 1.58
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
top Away win
45.6%
2.19x 43.8% n=448 risky won
Draw
27.2%
3.68x 43.8% n=448 risky lost
Home win
27.3%
3.66x 43.8% n=448 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 20 meetings — Angers 2W / 6D / 12L · momentum Angers 0.67 ppg vs Nice 2.5 ppg
Angers · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1 0-2 L
31 Oct · Ligue 1 2-0 L
25 Oct · Ligue 1 0-0 D
18 Oct · Ligue 1 2-5 L
10 Oct · Ligue 1 5-1 L
19 Sep · Ligue 1 2-0 W
Nice · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1 0-2 W
31 Oct · Ligue 1 5-2 W
23 Oct · Ligue 1 1-2 W
18 Oct · Ligue 1 2-1 L
11 Oct · Ligue 1 2-1 W
20 Sep · Ligue 1 2-1 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Ligue 1 Angers 0-2 Nice
14 Mar 26 · Ligue 1 Angers 0-2 Nice
07 Dec 25 · Ligue 1 Nice 0-1 Angers
20 Apr 25 · Ligue 1 Nice 2-1 Angers
01 Sep 24 · Ligue 1 Angers 1-4 Nice