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Ligue 1

Lens vs Marseille

Sun 08 Nov 21:45 0 minutes final 1–2 · settled
AWAY
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Pick identifiers — why this card reads RISK
RISK
Over 0.5 goals · 94.3%
why
• league PROVEN (76.7%, n=30)
• type ledger 100% (n=44)
• totals are accuracy-only - no pricing edge at book prices (90d: every slice negative; only U2.5/U3.5 carry edge, overs all lose)
league track
proven · 76.7% of 30 graded picks (60d, wilson lo 59.1%)
draws 16.7% of matches
team history 22/17 games (180d)
bet type · time of day
OU-O0.5: 100.0% hit (n=44, 90d ledger)
measured band: 93.0% (n=4488)
evening 18-24 kickoffs: 75.9% hit (n=2519)
What we suggest
All options come from ONE reconciled probability grid — they cannot contradict each other.
Strongest leg · risky
94.3%
Over 0.5 goals
top model pick, but the gate holds it back (league or evidence not proven) — informational, not advice.
HIGH risk
Value
No priced leg clears this league's minimum edge yet. Publishing unpriced legs would mislead — so we show none.
PAID exposes bookmaker odds, exact edges and every value pick. Upgrade
1X2 — engine vs market
Home win
42.9%
Draw
25.8%
Away win
31.4%
calibrated 08 Nov 17:24
scoring fit λ 1.84 / μ 1.56
model–market gap 0.0%
Every market — chance, price & backtest proof DC, totals & BTTS tables for PAID
backtested 28 Oct · 448 matches of this league
fair = engine's own price (1 ÷ chance); book above fair = value. green ≥ 66% amber 45–66% red < 45% BT = backtest hit-rate for this league · pick = engine's ledger bet.
1X2
pickchancefairbacktestverdictresult
Away win
31.4%
3.19x 43.8% n=448 risky won
Draw
25.8%
3.88x 43.8% n=448 risky lost
top Home win
42.9%
2.33x 43.8% n=448 risky lost
Form & head-to-head
H2H record: 50 meetings — Lens 19W / 9D / 22L · momentum Lens 1.0 ppg vs Marseille 2.5 ppg
Lens · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1 1-2 L
04 Nov · UEFA Champions League 1-9 L
30 Oct · Ligue 1 1-0 L
24 Oct · Ligue 1 2-1 W
21 Oct · UEFA Champions League 3-0 L
17 Oct · Ligue 1 1-3 W
Marseille · last 6
08 Nov · Ligue 1 1-2 W
05 Nov · UEFA Europa League 0-1 W
01 Nov · Ligue 1 2-0 W
25 Oct · Ligue 1 4-3 W
22 Oct · UEFA Europa League 1-0 L
18 Oct · Ligue 1 2-5 W
Head-to-head last 5
08 Nov 26 · Ligue 1 Lens 1-2 Marseille
25 Jan 26 · Ligue 1 Marseille 3-1 Lens
25 Oct 25 · Ligue 1 Lens 2-1 Marseille
09 Mar 25 · Ligue 1 Marseille 0-1 Lens
08 Mar 25 · Ligue 1 Marseille 0-1 Lens